Monday, October 13, 2008

The Oppenheimer Report 10/13/08


As I begin this report on Friday, the Dow is bouncing around in negative territory, dropping 200 points in a heartbeat. On this the eighth straight day of declines, you know that things are bad because CNN is featuring positive thought psychologists. I heard a stat earlier today indicating that the stock market is down almost 40% over its all time high, and this is clearly having its effects in the world financial markets. There are no longer debates about whether or not we are in a recession, but now the question is “where is the bottom?” For those of us who have never been through such a severe economic crisis, it might be easy to panic. There are probably a few high flyers out there who have known nothing but prosperity in their lives. I certainly fall into the category of lucky people who has never gone without.

I watched Obama and McCain debate in the recent Town Hall debate in Nashville, and I’d hate to be in either of those men’s shoes right now. I think McCain clearly has the uphill battle and, despite what I consider to be a Democratic tendency to self destruct, I think this one is in the bag for the donkeys. No matter how inexperienced, or how liberal or terrorist-befriending the Elephants want to make Obama out to be, it is those pesky pachyderms who have been at the helm for the past 8 years. They are perceived to have frittered away America’s good will, pouring the profits into the pockets of a few rich old white men. At least that’s what we’re told, and to a greater or lesser extent, is probably true. To oversimplify, it may be the widely held public inclination to elect Robin Hood, because the Sheriff of Nottingham crossed the line.

I’m as lost and concerned as the next American, but what worries me the most is that no leaders have emerged in such a long time. Bush certainly lowered the bar. I’m inclined to think Sarah Palin is a bit of a bonehead, but one thing she said in the V.P debate was important to hear. We, the voters, bear a good deal of the responsibility for our plight. We the voters should be accountable for our actions, and we in large part haven’t been. Did we not think that spending more than we have would come back to haunt us? Ever hear of the “greater fool” theory? This guy paid a lot for this house, so that one must be worth even more. We elect these “crooks” in Washington and we comprise the special interests and earmarks for which they lobby. We have seen the enemy and he is us.

Meanwhile, suddenly the richest nation ain’t so rich anymore, and it’s taking the rest of the first world economies down with it. Will prosperity once again blossom? Historically it has. Will North Americans ever figure out how lucky they were? Probably not. With every generation, that lesson seems to get harder to learn. I need only glance at the International Herald Tribune, if I want to remind myself of my unbelievable good fortune. I can check out the famine in Somalia, learn about what Mugabe is once again doing in Zimbabwe, or spend a few paragraphs in Afghanistan. Some of us think we understand privation, because our portfolios are temporarily down 30-40%. Life is the great equalizer, isn’t it? By the luck of the draw, some of us will die before our time. Some of us will do great things to aid mankind before we leave, some of us will commit unspeakable atrocities; some of us will do absolutely nothing. Maybe this global financial crisis will even out the playing field a little. Maybe some good will even come of it. Perhaps this is our economic French Revolution, absent the guillotines but complete with the justifiably angry, indignant mobs. I am hopeful fear will give way to ingenuity, and that necessity will turn laziness and complacency into productivity. I know if I lose everything I have, and I have had a lot, I will always consider myself a fortunate man. Good timing, because today is the Canadian Thanksgiving.
- Written by Jamie Oppenheimer c2008 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

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