Monday, February 02, 2009

The Oppenheimer Report 2-2-09


Back up North for this week then back down to Buffalo. My sister is driving back there from Connecticut today and will be there for the week. I’ll drive down, hopefully at the end of the week, for the next shift of Operation Loyal Sons and Daughters.

We spoke to Dad yesterday while he was watching the Superbowl in his bedroom. He sounded like the old dad, and he even threw in a few wisecracks, but he is clearly much weaker than he was when he went into the hospital about a month ago. The man has prostate cancer, a myriad of heart problems, arthritis, and lots of problems stemming from the fact that he is bedridden for 22 hours per day. Still he survives and seems to be in pretty good spirits. I think he is an excellent example of someone who is aging gracefully.

Things are progressing at the new home, but the economy and several other formidable setbacks have caused us some big problems, not the least of which was our former plumber. By far, he has turned out to be the biggest disappointment on this job. What started off as his occasional tardiness evolved into a litany of excuses and half-finished work. During the time he was at our construction site, he gradually became less and less reliable. In hindsight, we should have let him go a long time ago, but almost like a battered wife, we kept coming back for more. The time lost and the havoc he wreaked on our other trades, many who were reliant on his timely completion of his work, will be costly. We now have what I hope are reliable plumbers to complete his unfinished work, some of which had to be redone. The worst part about all of this is that we all, including our builder, trusted this fool.

I was watching some of the talking heads on a financial segment of CNN the other night and they were of course discussing the bleak economic picture. While this global recession seems to deepen every day, and is perhaps worse than anyone would have imagined, recessions and even depressions are cyclical. Everyone wants to know how bad and how long. As the experts weighed in with their predictions and insights, one guy touched upon the variable which is hard to gauge: consumer confidence. There is a lot of outrage out there. A lot of people lost their jobs and/or their security because of this mortgage-backed securities debacle. Throw in a couple of Bernie Madoffs and we have a real crisis of confidence. No doubt, any of us who let ourselves become heavily leveraged, and spent more than we had can take much of the blame for the mess we’re in now. As we have all learned, “value” is a relative term, and what we are worth on paper can change overnight. Banking on value is risky. In the back of my mind, I can’t say I ever really trusted my government. I know that this cynical sentiment is almost a truism, and that a lot of us feel the same way about this. But a trust has been broken with our bankers, with our stock brokers, our real estate salespeople, and even our plumbers(!). When a trust is broken, how long does it take to rebuild? I used to shake my head at my frugal father, turning off lights when he left a room. After all, how much electricity is saved leaving a light off for an hour? But my dad lived through the Great Depression. Seventy years later, those memories are still clear in his mind. I think we’re all going to be learning some hard lessons over the years to come. Written by Jamie Oppenheimer c 2009 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

we seem to have a few things in common... I am a songwriter influenced by many of the same artists including Harold Arlen, whom I knew.... and I see from your picture you have hiked lake' O'Hara (about which I wrote the book 'Eternal Lake O'Hara').

check out my songs at:
myspace.com/carolsokoloffandtrioespresso
best wishes, 

carol sokoloff